Potash
Demand Drivers
Short-Term Demand Drivers
Mid-Term Demand Drivers
Long-Term Demand Drivers
- Grain prices
- Grain inventories
- Weather
- Crop yields
- Crop mix
- Planting intentions
- Fertilizer inventories
- Shipping rates
- Exchange rates
- Current economic conditions
- Dumping
- Feedstock costs
- Availability of credit
Mid-Term Demand Drivers
- New capacity announcements
- Plant shutdowns and mine closures
- Current economic conditions
- Changing tax regimes and government policies
- Energy price changes
- Shrinking agricultural land base
- Adoption of genetically modified seeds
- Irrigation improvements
- Political unrest
- Cash costs of swing producers
- Permanent capacity utilization rate changes
- Farmer income, subsidies, protection, and financing
Long-Term Demand Drivers
- Global population growth – could increase by 40%+ by 2050
- Arable land per capita is shrinking fast
- Global meat consumption per capita is increasing
- One tonne of poultry requires feed corresponding to 2 tonnes of grain;
- One tonne of pork requires feed corresponding to 4 tonnes of grain; and
- One tonne of beef requires feed corresponding to 7 tonnes of grain.
- Global GDP growth should get back on track – higher disposable incomes lead to a demand increase for higher-protein diets, including the consumption of more meat, and higher-quality fruits and vegetables
- Adoption and growth of biofuels markets
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